There is a side effect of every medicine just as there are always pros and cons for every decision. Coupled with this, excess of anything is harmful.
India has perhaps one of the largest numbers who can read/understand English. English is very closely associated with the "Developed World". Hence, our English media is greatly influenced by the "Developed World".
It actually goes further from media to individuals. The more "cerebral and globally connected" individuals are all a ball of gloom. R written large on their faces and expressions. There are enough reasons given, even for India.
- Current slowdown
- Approaching elections
- Job slashes
- Next monsoons
To me it is a clear sign of clouded mind. It is so visible in the English newspapers vs local language papers. Headlines in English media all talks about - losses, layoffs, slowing demand, US companies going down under etc. Language papers talk of recent elections and promises, banks slashing interest rates for loans, lower fuel prices, good arrivals of commodities at local markets, new road projects awarded etc.
How come "Class" is not in sync with "Mass"?
Over the weekend, I was at a religious town in the hills of North India.
Travelling by Rajdhani Express - full to capacity, good quality of food (compared to last year), better infrastructure at New Delhi railway station.... More importantly train running on time.
On chatting with a local businessman at the town, his concern was how to find prime space for expansion as business is bursting at seems. Arrivals this December are not only more than November but significantly more than last year December. Realisations are much better. All economic parameters are performing well - no. of rooms, occupancy, rates, no. of taxis, buses plying on the route, sales of handicrafts, food etc. No negatives yet. But these have to flow and came a series of issues (none of them were any different from the past) - power shortage, not enough ATMs, better roads, clean municipal water supply etc.
So why this hysteria about India going through as bad a time as US?
- Inflation is <8%, lower than 13% a few months ago and much lower than what indians were used to till 10 years ago
- no food shortages
- enough supply of manufactured goods
- on a full year basis, I am sure most companies would be showing a growth over last year
- more mobile phones are being sold
The only sectors woth an actual -ve growth are automobiles (more commercial than passenger), equity investments (less than 2% of Indian population owns stocks anyways), passengers by air (less than 0.25% population uses airlines and railways are carrying more passengers anyways), Exports (but anyways they were not dependent on indians).
I am not propagating that we should sit idle and be comfortable. But why panic?
I am reminded of this great story that I got from a villager in Rajasthan.
One day a small boy was pained to see his camel bleeding in his toungue while eating leaves from local favourite "Kikar" (Acacia nilotica) which has long and sharp thorms with small leaves typical of arid climates. He could not continue to see this and insisted that the camel must be given fodder that is bereft of all thorns. Rich father smiled and agreed.
Camel was given feed that had no thorns but the usual behaviour was missing. Soon, camel stopped eating fodder and grew weak. Son was confused and went back to father and asked "How can I make Camel as happy as earlier?" Father said, let him loose and eat whatever he wants. Camel ran to Kikar and ate the leaves and started bleeding again.
Dad explained to son - Camel gets intial pain but gets the taste of blood with leaves. Soon thinks that the taste is good which is perhaps because of blood.
Are our economists beaving like Camels and have started enjoying the taste of "Thorns"?
India has perhaps one of the largest numbers who can read/understand English. English is very closely associated with the "Developed World". Hence, our English media is greatly influenced by the "Developed World".
It actually goes further from media to individuals. The more "cerebral and globally connected" individuals are all a ball of gloom. R written large on their faces and expressions. There are enough reasons given, even for India.
- Current slowdown
- Approaching elections
- Job slashes
- Next monsoons
To me it is a clear sign of clouded mind. It is so visible in the English newspapers vs local language papers. Headlines in English media all talks about - losses, layoffs, slowing demand, US companies going down under etc. Language papers talk of recent elections and promises, banks slashing interest rates for loans, lower fuel prices, good arrivals of commodities at local markets, new road projects awarded etc.
How come "Class" is not in sync with "Mass"?
Over the weekend, I was at a religious town in the hills of North India.
Travelling by Rajdhani Express - full to capacity, good quality of food (compared to last year), better infrastructure at New Delhi railway station.... More importantly train running on time.
On chatting with a local businessman at the town, his concern was how to find prime space for expansion as business is bursting at seems. Arrivals this December are not only more than November but significantly more than last year December. Realisations are much better. All economic parameters are performing well - no. of rooms, occupancy, rates, no. of taxis, buses plying on the route, sales of handicrafts, food etc. No negatives yet. But these have to flow and came a series of issues (none of them were any different from the past) - power shortage, not enough ATMs, better roads, clean municipal water supply etc.
So why this hysteria about India going through as bad a time as US?
- Inflation is <8%, lower than 13% a few months ago and much lower than what indians were used to till 10 years ago
- no food shortages
- enough supply of manufactured goods
- on a full year basis, I am sure most companies would be showing a growth over last year
- more mobile phones are being sold
The only sectors woth an actual -ve growth are automobiles (more commercial than passenger), equity investments (less than 2% of Indian population owns stocks anyways), passengers by air (less than 0.25% population uses airlines and railways are carrying more passengers anyways), Exports (but anyways they were not dependent on indians).
I am not propagating that we should sit idle and be comfortable. But why panic?
I am reminded of this great story that I got from a villager in Rajasthan.
One day a small boy was pained to see his camel bleeding in his toungue while eating leaves from local favourite "Kikar" (Acacia nilotica) which has long and sharp thorms with small leaves typical of arid climates. He could not continue to see this and insisted that the camel must be given fodder that is bereft of all thorns. Rich father smiled and agreed.
Camel was given feed that had no thorns but the usual behaviour was missing. Soon, camel stopped eating fodder and grew weak. Son was confused and went back to father and asked "How can I make Camel as happy as earlier?" Father said, let him loose and eat whatever he wants. Camel ran to Kikar and ate the leaves and started bleeding again.
Dad explained to son - Camel gets intial pain but gets the taste of blood with leaves. Soon thinks that the taste is good which is perhaps because of blood.
Are our economists beaving like Camels and have started enjoying the taste of "Thorns"?
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